Bitcoin Price Ping Pong Within Tighter Range Hinting at $8.5K Next

The worth of Bitcoin (BTC), the top-ranked cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has seen a spike in direction of $10,500 earlier than the halving happened on May 11. However, the worth of Bitcoin has been having issues because the halving and is presently exhibiting extra indicators of weak point.

On the opposite hand, altcoins have been beginning to present indicators of life with the BTC market dominance index sliding from 67% to 65% after the halving. Is the momentum now shifting in direction of altcoins from Bitcoin as probably the most anticipated occasion is behind us? 

Bitcoin worth is hovering inside a variety as volatility drops

The worth of Bitcoin is caught inside a variety as the subsequent chart exhibits. The resistance space within the crimson zone between $9,800 and $10,100. At the identical time, the worth is discovering assist within the $8,250-8,500 space.

Additionally, BTC is transferring above the 100-day and 200-day transferring averages (MA), a bullish signal for the markets. 

As the halving hype is slowly fading and the market goes again to its day by day rhythm, the worth of Bitcoin can also be stabilizing. Is that uncommon? 

No, that’s regular. The halving was such a giant occasion for Bitcoin that the hype on social media can create unsustainable worth rallies and drops across the occasion. 

The earlier halving exhibits an analogous construction. The worth of Bitcoin moved considerably within the run-up to the occasion, then a pre-halving crash occurred and a brand new vary was established. Throughout the month, the worth of Bitcoin consolidated inside a variety. 

Afterward, yet one more drop occurred and the market continued its upward momentum whereas holding the 200-MA as assist till the height in December 2019.

Bitcoin fails to interrupt $10,000 and drops out of the rising wedge

As the 4-hour chart is exhibiting, the worth of Bitcoin misplaced the rising wedge construction and broke down. In different phrases, one other failure breaking by the $10,000 psychological barrier.

Alongside the drop, the worth misplaced the assist at $9,300. Recent strikes have additionally confirmed this stage as resistance as properly. However, assist was discovered at $8,900 because the chart is exhibiting.

What’s subsequent? Is the upwards momentum over? Or is the market merely returning again to regular with altcoins gaining extra consideration?

Total market cap holds above 200-day MA

The complete market capitalization remains to be holding the 100-day and 200-day MAs as assist, which is essential for additional upwards momentum.

However, the market cap itself is presently consolidating after a 120% surge in a matter of eight weeks. What’s the essential stage to carry? It’s the gray field at $220-225 billion. 

If that stage stays assist, the entire market cap might be in prime place for a surge towards $300+ billion, presumably even $360 billion. However, shedding that key stage can see a quick drop.

The significance of this stage lies in the truth that it’s each the 100-day and 200-day MA performing as assist confluent with a powerful horizontal assist stage, which served as assist all through 2019. 

Thus, not solely will $220-225 billion stage holding as assist be a powerful sign for additional upwards momentum, however it could additionally make the March 12 crash one huge shakeout for all the cryptocurrency market. 

Finally, the quantity indicator is exhibiting a rise in quantity. This is one other robust sign as this could recommend extra accumulation. 

Altcoin market capitalization nonetheless lagging behind

The complete altcoin market capitalization chart exhibits a powerful assist/resistance flip of $70 billion, a stage that’s additionally confluent with the 100-day and 200-day MAs as assist. This is necessary because the market cap didn’t lose these MAs through the earlier crypto bull market cycle.

However, as Bitcoin had vital assist in 2019 on the $6,000 stage, the entire market capitalization had executed the identical with $220-225 billion. But now, the entire market cap is once more holding the $220-225 billion stage as assist whereas the worth of Bitcoin is now 50% larger.

The altcoins by themselves are additionally lagging closely as $113 billion is the 2019 assist stage comparable with the $6,000 stage for Bitcoin.

The chart above exhibits that altcoins have been lagging generally. Is {that a} unhealthy factor? No, Bitcoin is a primary mover and in addition peaked first in December 2019, after which the altcoins adopted.

Right now, Bitcoin had its first run pre-halving in direction of $10,200. But the quantity is now additionally rising for altcoins. This implies that demand and curiosity are rising probably setting the stage for altcoins to lastly catch up.

The bullish situation for Bitcoin 

The gray zone (with a possible wick in direction of $8,950) wants to carry. After that, a breakout of $9,300 is required to finally push the worth towards $9,600 or larger.

If such a transfer happens, a retest of the vary excessive between $9,800-10,100 is probably going as the subsequent step. As this stage has been examined many occasions already, the resistance stage ought to be weaker as a rule.

In that regard, if this situation performs out, a breakout to the upside may see the worth of Bitcoin probably run towards $11,000 or $11,500.

The bearish situation for Bitcoin 

However, as soon as the worth of Bitcoin isn’t capable of break by the $9,300 barrier, retests of the lows ought to be anticipated. Levels to check could be $8,800 (already examined as soon as already), however, extra importantly, $8,200-8,500 assist of the present vary. 

Nevertheless, this could nonetheless not be catastrophic for Bitcoin generally. The construction would nonetheless stay in an upward trajectory since March 12. The worth has been making larger highs and better lows since then, which is by definition a powerful upward pattern. Consolidation is, the truth is, wholesome for the market if new highs are to be established. 

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